Heading to the Cologne stadium, a tram packed with English fans shakes to the rhythm of Phil Foden’s on Fire, the song that is then repeated in the stands to the confusion. Like a spell. They have Foden, although yesterday he temporarily left the concentration due to the birth of his third child. And Foden is like never before, recently chosen as the best player in the Premier. They also have the top scorer in the Bundesliga (Kane); and third in LaLiga (Bellingham). But when Gareth Southgate puts them together, their scoring output (0.67 goals per game) is the second worst in the Euro Cup, only behind Serbia’s (0.33). The problem is not attributable to a phase of lack of aim. It’s about something deeper.
In the broadcast of the match against Slovenia (0-0), former footballer Gary Neville once again pointed out the coach: “England has enormous talents. “We cannot afford to manage them poorly.” France also finished the group stage with two goals, but there is a fundamental difference. Southgate’s team is the sixth one that generates the least danger, chances that add up to 0.81 expected goals (xG) per game, according to the StatsBomb. Only Scotland, Slovakia, Serbia, Albania and Slovenia generate less. On the other hand, Deschamps’ is the fifth most dangerous: 1.37 xG.
On Tuesday, after another disappointing night, Southgate, on target, wanted to see positive signs: “We would have loved to score a couple of goals, but we have improved on the previous game. We showed more with the ball.” In fact, considering the players at his disposal, what his team has done with the ball so far is disappointing. It is a slow, predictable team lacking energy and daring. The coach has not yet found a partner for Declan Rice in midfield with whom to make the machine work. First he tried two games with a full-back (Alexander-Arnold), then 45 minutes with Gallagher and another 45 with Mainoo, who contributed the most.
England gives more passes per game in this European Championship (659) than in any since 1996, which is the first for which StatsBomb keeps records, but that lack of success does not bring them any closer to the goal. The comparison of what they do with the ball and Germany, the team that makes the most passes (720), is revealing. Nagelsmann’s team takes it to the final third of the opponent’s field 73 times per game, through passing, dribbling or driving; while Southgate’s makes it 46.
England generate little in the hot zones: they are the team with the second fewest passes completed in the opposition box (0.67 per game), only ahead of the Czech Republic (0.50). England players, like Stones, are aware of their caution: “I can understand the frustration of the fans for not taking too many risks,” said the City centre-back after the match against Slovenia.
At the speed at which they play, and with Kane and Bellingham far from their physical best, it is difficult to surprise. They are the fourth slowest team when building plays that end in a shot: they approach the goal at a speed of 1.58 metres per second, while Spain, the fourth fastest, does so at 2.75.
Foden may be on fire, but England attacks badly and the result is that he has never shot from so far in a Euro, at 18.5 meters on average, the fifth furthest away. In the last edition, when they finished as finalists, they were the second closest to the goal, at 14 meters on average.
On Tuesday, when Southgate approached the English fans to applaud after the 0-0, several empty beer glasses were thrown at him. “An unusual atmosphere is being created,” he said. “I haven’t seen a team qualify and receive similar treatment.”
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