After two days of group stage, and before the decisive match, we turn to our statistical model to answer two key questions: what options does each team have to be in the round of 16 and who are the favorites to win the tournament.
Group A
Germany, with two victories, is guaranteed a place in the round of 16. In addition, they will be first if they draw or win against Switzerland, something that happens with an 85% probability, according to our simulations.
The Swiss, with four points, are also virtually qualified. They could drop to third place if they lose to Germany, and Scotland beat Hungary. But, even in that case—2% probability—our model almost certainly places them in the round of 16 because they would be one of the four best third parties (who also pass, along with the first and second in each group).
Scotland and Hungary have fewer options, just one in three to be in the round of 16. The two teams will face each other on the last day, and whoever wins could qualify as one of the best third parties.
B Group
The Spanish team, after winning its two games, ensures that it is first and is already waiting for its rival in the round of 16. Italy also has a good chance of qualifying (91%). The team coached by Luciano Spalletti would need a draw against Croatia to be second.
Croatia has it more difficult. Luka Modric’s team began the tournament with a 75% chance of reaching the round of 16, but at the moment it only has one point and his elimination is twice as likely to happen to him.
Group C
England is already virtually classified, and will probably be first (84%). Behind, the group is very open. Denmark has a 76% chance of continuing in the tournament, waiting for its duel against Serbia, where it is a favorite. But both the Serbs (37% options) and the Slovenians (40%) are still alive.
Group D
One of the groups of death already has a victim: Robert Lewandowski’s Poland has been eliminated. The two group favorites, France and the Netherlands, have four points and are virtually in the round of 16, with a probability of 99.9%. But Austria’s pass is also very likely. They are third with three points, and could qualify by beating the Netherlands, but also by drawing or even losing by a few goals, because they would surely be one of the best third parties.
Group E
Group E is the most open of the six: the four teams now have three points! They risk everything in the last game. Our model places Belgium ahead, with an 84% chance of passing, because it is considered the best team, followed by Romania (81%), Slovakia (73%) and Ukraine (59%).
It so happens that the tie between Romania and Slovakia qualifies the two teams. Both teams will have less incentive to go on the attack, which is something the model of course ignores.
Group F
Portugal is already in the round of 16 and our model believes that Turkey will accompany it, which has a 90% chance. They only need to draw against the Czech Republic to secure second place, although they could also qualify if they lose.
Czechia and Georgia now have a point and a negative goal difference. Their classification depends on a comfortable victory, which our model sees as doubtful in the case of the Czechs (46%) and very difficult for the Georgians (10%).
Which teams are favorites for the tournament?
After two days, our model maintains its preferences without major alterations. There have been no surprises and the best teams will be in the round of 16 without any setbacks. Their chances of winning the tournament remain similar to those at the beginning:
Germany, Portugal and Spain have taken a small step forward: their chances of winning the tournament rise one point, to now have 13%, 13% and 12%, respectively. These are the three teams that have won both of their matches, which has raised their Elo score, one of the metrics with which we measure the strength of each team. That is why his chances of winning the tournament have increased.
And in the Copa América?
This week we have also launched a prediction model for the American tournament. The methodology is essentially the same, but with only 16 teams competing in the tournament, there are two clear favorites: Argentina, with a 37% chance of taking the trophy, and Brazil, with 27%. They are followed by Uruguay (8%), the United States (8%) and Colombia (7%):
CHOOSE PREDICTION DATE:
PROBABILITY OF REACHING EACH PHASE AND WINNING THE TOURNAMENT
All our predictions will be updated every day, both those for the Euro Cup and those for the Copa América. In addition, you can read and share the two models also in English, here and here.
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