We have to talk about what Real Madrid is doing to statistics. His streak of victories in the Champions League finals – this Saturday he won the 15th European Cup – is an amazing fact, an improbable sequence that leaves those who, like me, believe in the power of numbers to explain natural phenomena, speechless. Since 1998, the Whites have played nine finals and won them all, in a sequence that threatens probability.
Madrid has made something abnormal the norm: always winning. I say this after doing the calculations. In the graph I show the probability I had of winning each final – once reached – and the probability of chaining the entire sequence of victories. Conclusion: winning the final nine was a 1 in 300 probability event.
To estimate the probabilities I have used the Elo score. The metric, original to chess, maintains a rating of each team according to its results. After each match, the rivals exchange points depending on the result and their level. Additionally, scores can be translated into probabilities. For example, when two teams separated by 108 Elo points face each other, such as Real Madrid (1988) and Borussia Dortmund (1879 points), the method says that the first is a favorite and should win two out of three times.
Madrid’s triumphant sequence also surprises the betting market. If someone had bet on Madrid in the last five finals, they would have multiplied their money 25 times.
The statistics said that Madrid could lose. It was not a crazy prediction, because anyone who watched the game understands that – logically – they could have been defeated. A final is like tossing a coin, even if it is not perfectly calibrated, there are always options for two teams. What is strange about Real Madrid? They have been tossing coins since 1998, counting nine tosses already, and all of them came up heads. As if there were hacked the Champions finals.
Another sign that the streak is very rare? It’s been three times since I wrote this article. The sequence of victories was already improbable in 2018, even more so in 2022 and even more so now. Here we continue.
The road to the final: not easy
In 2022, Madrid also made the statistics tremble throughout the entire knockout phase, beating Chelsea, City and Liverpool when it was not (in theory) superior. This year has been different.
According to the statistical model of Opta Analystthe whites were the second best team in the round of 16, with a 15% chance of winning the trophy, only behind City, who won with a 32% probability.
These numbers elevate the Madrid myth because they remind us that winning a tournament by elimination requires exposing yourself to luck. Therefore, although City and Real Madrid were the favorites in the round of 16, half of the time another club would win. Even if you are a favorite at almost every intersection, the risk of stumbling exists and accumulates.
In reality, the abnormality of the whites is twofold: they avoid bad luck when facing theoretically inferior teams; and invokes fortune when facing other favorites.
How can you explain Madrid’s success in the Champions League? We skeptics can put forward timid arguments. For example, it is logical to think that the favorites will win more finals, because that is when they bring out their level. But that’s not enough. Madrid’s victories must be attributed to luck, which is an increasingly less convincing thesis, or explained by a myriad of details that make it special.
Some day we will do a deep analysis to try to understand.
Meanwhile, I stick with the self-fulfilling prophecy hypothesis. Real Madrid magic does not exist, but it is natural that its players and rivals believe in it. Even if it’s a little, between doubts, for a moment. In those special minutes, in the middle of a legendary game, with the heart pumping, when the seconds slip away and it is impossible to think clearly. And at that moment, won’t it be easier to come back if you feel that fortune is helping you? And the other way around: if you miss a clear chance, and Real Madrid is in front of you, isn’t it inevitable to doubt? Perhaps the legend of Madrid was created by chance – like a gust of wind that lifts the sand to give it the shape of a castle – but that legend is now a reality, and like any story, it will also have real consequences.
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