After the 3-3 against Manchester City on Tuesday at the Bernabéu, Carlo Ancelotti made an announcement with echoes of “this is the way”, the mantra of the Mandalorians. He was clear that next Wednesday, in the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals, he was going to insist on the plan: “We have the idea of playing the same game: with a lot of pressure, with many duels. And let’s see what happens.”
Real Madrid returns next week to the scene of its biggest European disaster in 35 years, since the 5-0 defeat of Milan in which Ancelotti scored the first. That same night of the 4-0 at the Etihad, the Italian coach already understood that the physical factor was no longer enough for them, and what was the way, which allowed him to punish Guardiola’s team on Tuesday.
The jump in the team’s intensity between 4-0 and 3-3 is formidable. One of the data recorded by StatsBomb is especially revealing. In last season’s qualifiers (Liverpool, Chelsea and the first leg against City), Madrid carried out pressures that lasted an average of 134 seconds per game, while in the second leg at the Etihad the duration of that effort fell to 110 seconds , 18% less. On the other hand, at the Bernabéu, where he made a similar number of pressures (217 then, 213 on Tuesday), the total duration of the effort rose to 169 seconds, 25% more than the average for last season’s qualifying rounds, and a 53% more than in the sinking of the Etihad. The level of intensity was the same as that of the 2022 extra time in the comeback against City, when Madrid pressed at a pace of 169 seconds per 90 minutes. The English noticed the change on Tuesday, as Rodri explained: “They have a good defensive structure, and they punish you on the counterattack with two or three very dangerous players.”
There is also a difference in the areas in which Madrid applied pressure, as can be seen in the images below. The first shows the 2023 match and the second shows that of Tuesday, when Ancelotti’s team was used higher up.
The jump is explained by two factors already pointed out last year by the coaching staff: the attitude and the physical point due to the age of some players. Benzema then made 15 pressures, but only Asensio’s were more ephemeral: 0.3 seconds for the Spaniard and 0.4 for the Frenchman. His replacement, Jude Bellingham, worked much more: 42 pressures in which he lasted more than twice as long, 0.7 seconds on average.
Camavinga also contributed more than Modric at the Etihad: the Frenchman pressed 37 times for an average of 0.9 seconds, while the Croatian had done so 14 times and had lasted less than half, 0.4 seconds. Camavinga’s impact was also greater at the Bernabéu, where he was positioned in the center of the field, than in Manchester, where he played as a full-back and pressed 26 times for an average of 0.6 seconds. On both occasions he was the player on the team who spent the most time harassing the opponent.
The increase in intensity helped Madrid on Tuesday to insist more on one of its most notable weapons: it is the team in the five major leagues that has scored the most goals on the counterattack, 14 in all competitions, according to Opta. The second and third for City came through that route, which Guardiola also knew: “I already thought it was going to happen. What happens is that it has happened more than normal because very reliable players like Rodri and Bernardo, even John (Stones), have lost more balls than normal.” In part, a result of the plan that Ancelotti explained: “We have handled it very well, especially the pressure in the opposite field, looking for transitions. Until we had energy, the game went well.” Federico Valverde was also clear: “We tried to steal higher up. We knew that with speed we could attack them much more than they could attack us, who are more of a positional game. As long as we had legs, as long as we had oxygen, he gave us the opportunity to score goals.”
Even Guardiola knows that “this is the way” to return: “No matter how well you do it, some are going to run away from you. I accept it now: on Wednesday they are going to fire me,” he said on Tuesday.
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