Last night Elon Musk presented his robotaxi prototype, the Cybercab, a driverless taxi (it has no steering wheel or pedals) with which Tesla intends to revolutionize the mobility of cities. Very much in his line, he took advantage of the spotlight to predict when they will be on sale: “Probably, well, I tend to be not very optimistic about deadlines, but in 2026. Before 2027, let me put it this way.” This he said, despite not yet having the necessary regulatory authorizations to operate this type of vehicle. Meanwhile, in San Francisco there has already been a fleet of Waymo robotaxis for some time.
Will he meet the deadlines he has set for himself? It wouldn’t be the first time it hasn’t arrived. The tycoon has, in fact, a long history of exaggerations in everything surrounding his long-awaited project of developing autonomous cars, to which he has entrusted the future of the company: “Tesla’s value is, overwhelmingly, autonomy,” said this summer at a meeting with investors. This technology is their big bet to leave behind traditional automobile companies and Chinese electric car manufacturers, who have gained so much ground in recent years.
If Musk’s promises were realistic, self-driving Teslas would be on the streets as early as 2017. But seven years have passed and they are still not ready. Below we review other of Musk’s main failed predictions regarding the arrival of self-driving Teslas.
Complete autonomy in 2017. The first time that the richest man in the world promised self-driving cars was in December 2015. He said then that he would develop cars “with complete autonomy” by 2017. Nine years have passed and Teslas still need a driver, although they incorporate a system capable of take over the controls of the car, but always with human supervision: the driver must be ready to take over the controls. This driving system, in fact, has accumulated several accidents, some of them fatal, in the United States and China.
Unsupervised driving in 2016. “The Model S and Model
Able to drive in the city and park alone. That same year, Musk released a video in which a Tesla was driving near his offices. “Tesla drives itself (with no human intervention at all) down urban streets, onto the highway and then back onto the streets, and finally finds a place to park,” the tycoon tweeted.
In 2018, during a trial for an accident, the company claimed that the video was an “aspirational demonstration” of what Teslas would one day be capable of doing.
a million robotaxis in 2020. “I feel very confident predicting that there will be self-driving robotaxis from Tesla next year,” he said in 2019. “Not in all jurisdictions, because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere. But I’m sure we’ll have at least regulatory approval somewhere, literally next year.” Musk’s proclamation was accompanied by a figure: he believed it was possible to flood the streets with a million robotaxis.
Five years later, the tycoon has just presented the prototype of that vehicle, which still does not have the necessary permits to circulate.
The floating Cybertruck and autonomy. When Musk presented the first prototype of the Cybertruck, his electric pick-up, in 2019, he said that it would be available from $39,900 and would have a range of about 800 kilometers. Today, the cheapest version of this vehicle costs at least $60,000 and is capable of traveling just over 500 kilometers without recharging the battery.
In addition to its futuristic appearance, the Cybertruck was sold with amazing features, such as its indestructible windows (which Musk himself burst live). More striking than that was that the Cybertruck would be able to float for short periods of time, basically crossing rivers. EITHER that’s what musk said.
Expanding autonomy is one of the great obsessions of electric car manufacturers, since it is their main weak point compared to vehicles with combustion engines. Musk is no stranger to this battle. “I think we can reach 1,000 kilometers of autonomy in one or two years. I would say that by 2017 we will have it.” It has not yet exceeded 600 kilometers.
Other promises
Whether out of arrogance or as a marketing strategy, Musk accumulates unfulfilled promises in many other areas:
Twitter will reach 1 billion users. He said this in November 2022, shortly after taking over the company. Today it has XXX.
The ‘app’ for everything. Musk’s intention is to turn X into a app where you can also buy, reserve tickets or perform many other tasks. For the moment, what he has added to Twitter compared to before his arrival is pornographic content and lack of moderation.
Solve climate change. “SpaceX is starting a program to take CO₂ from the atmosphere and convert it into rocket fuel,” he said in 2021.
Hyperloop in Chicago. In 2018, Musk announced in a joint press conference with the mayor of Chicago that he would build a tunnel of about 30 kilometers to connect downtown with O’Hare Airport. The journey would be completed in 12 minutes in a hyperloop, the ultra-fast train project that was presented in 2013 as the great revolution for long-distance travel and that never got off the ground, just like the tunnel.
Human colonies on Mars. In 2024 there will be humans on the Red Planet. That was his prediction in 2014, when he also began to say that he wants to build a self-sustaining city on Mars.
